Saturday, April 16, 2005

Impending doom or Wishful Thinking

One of the problems with following the housing and credit market bubbles is that you tend to look for articles or data that support your hypothesis, and maybe unconciously, or conciously ignore contrarian information. I don't view this as a character flaw, but rather as an almost unavoidable bias. If you read enough articles like the one referenced below, you might be inclined to hoard gold and stock up on canned food this weekend.

"The specter of unfolding financial crisis incited some panic buying of Treasuries. Two-year Treasury yields ended the week down 24 basis points to 3.49%. Five-year government yields declined 27 basis points to 3.87%, and 10-year Treasury yields sank 24 basis points to 4.23%. Long-bond yields dropped 17 basis points to 4.59%. The spread between 2 and 30-year government yields narrowed two basis points to 100. Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields dropped 22 basis points."

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