NJ Legislator Tries To Make Matters Worse
There is probably not a faster way to reduce housing market liquidity than to tell banks they can not foreclose. Simply put, a bank will not make a loan if believes the state will impede its ability to collect their collateral should the home owner not pay principal and interest.
(ROSELLE) - Assembly Deputy Speaker Neil M. Cohen today called for a state-imposed moratorium on subprime mortgage loan foreclosures, pending an investigation into the burgeoning problems in the subprime lending market and its effects on New Jersey homeowners.
"The nation's subprime mortgage loan market is experiencing a total and catastrophic meltdown," said Cohen (D-Union), the chairman of the Assembly Financial Institutions and Insurance Committee. "A moratorium is needed to provided breathing room so regulators, investigators, and lawmakers can get a handle on what this meltdown means for New Jersey homeowners and what potential safeguards may be needed for consumers."
Full article...
(ROSELLE) - Assembly Deputy Speaker Neil M. Cohen today called for a state-imposed moratorium on subprime mortgage loan foreclosures, pending an investigation into the burgeoning problems in the subprime lending market and its effects on New Jersey homeowners.
"The nation's subprime mortgage loan market is experiencing a total and catastrophic meltdown," said Cohen (D-Union), the chairman of the Assembly Financial Institutions and Insurance Committee. "A moratorium is needed to provided breathing room so regulators, investigators, and lawmakers can get a handle on what this meltdown means for New Jersey homeowners and what potential safeguards may be needed for consumers."
Full article...
posted by Little_Silvered at 9:05 PM
16 Comments:
Local paper, "Letters to Editor"..."Brielle Realtors Ask Residents To Consider Property Value". Begging residents to vote "yes" to school budget, so town won't appear poor and property values will increase. Why don't they just come out and say their commissions are shrinking? Talk about realtors spinning facts - this is sickening!
Hi, everyone, Just buy $2 million house, don't pay the morgages, wait for bail out.
Evey body please stop paying your morgage and Gov will bail out.
I bought too much car for my budget. Where's my bail-out?
-Jamey
Seriously.
"I can't plan properly or do math. I'm a VICTIM!"
NEWS->>>>>>
Subprime woes take toll on GE results- wiping out $373m in profit ~~~~
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
Subprime woes take toll on GE results
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: 13/4/2007 | Last Updated: 13/4/2007 17:25 London Time
The US subprime mortgage crisis hit General Electric on Friday, wiping $373m from the industrial conglomerate's first quarter profits and prompting its executives to warn of an incipient "bubble" in global credit markets.
GE said it had replaced the senior management team at its mortgage unit, and would reduce its workforce by around 1,000 people, or 40 per cent.
GE will also cut by half the loans it makes to less than $15bn this year - a sign of its belief that the subprime market has yet to hit the bottom.
"We have got to get our house in order," Keith Sherin, GE's chief financial officer, told the Financial Times.
Mr Sherin said the problems in the subprime sector, which targets borrowers with weak credit histories, were being replicated in the market for "Alt-A" loans for borrowers with slightly better credit scores.
Mr Sherin sounded a broader warning on the health of the global credit markets.
He said he was concerned at the rise in the level of high-yield debt, which has fuelled the boom in leveraged buyouts by private equity groups, and the growing use of "no covenant" deals, which strip lenders of the right to force borrowers to repay the debt.
"The levels of debt assumed in LBO activities and the lack of covenants . . . to me those are sign of a bubble," he said.
GE is in talks with a number of buyout groups over the $8bn-$10bn sale of its troubled plastics business, which it expects to clinch by June.
GE, whose WMC mortgage division is the fifth-largest US subprime lender, is the latest blue-chip company to be wrong-footed by the abrupt downturn in the industry, which has been hit by a sharp rise in defaults and delinquencies.
GE saw a reduction of $373m in the profits of its GE Money division in the first quarter of 2007 and took a $500m markdown to reflect the lower value of its assets.
Mark Begor, chief executive of GE Money, Americas, told Wall Street analysts the subprime woes would have smaller impact, about $50m, on second quarter results.
Despite problems in the subprime unit and the plastics business, GE reported net earnings from continuing operations of $4.5bn in the three months to March.
The 8 per cent increase over a year ago was in line with analysts' forecasts.
Profits were driven by a strong performance in the infrastructure unit, which has been powered by strong orders in the Middle East and Asia. Revenues were up 6 per cent to $40.2bn.
Net earnings, including discontinued operations, were up 2 per cent at $4.5bn.
Subprime bailout? $120 billion
More than 1 million borrowers may be at risk of defaulting on their mortgages. Assisting them all wouldn't come cheap.
By Stephen Gandel, Money Magazine senior writer
April 13 2007: 4:21 PM EDT
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/13/real_estate/subprimebailout_cost.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007041314
NEW YORK (Money) -- Want to pick up the check for every homeowner who got saddled with a risky mortgage? It's a big one - on the order of $120 billion.
Lawmakers and consumer groups in recent weeks have been calling for assistance for those at risk of defaulting on their mortgage.
On Wednesday, Congressional Democrats led by Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) advocated steering hundreds of millions of dollars into nonprofits to help the growing number of homeowners who are having trouble paying their mortgage.
But economists and industry experts say the cost of a bailout would be significantly more than that.
Christopher Cagan, director of research at First American CoreLogic, says rising mortgage payments on adjustable rate loans will force 1.1 million homeowners into foreclosure over the next 6 years. He estimates the cost of paying off the debt for those borrowers would be $120 billion.
A spokesperson for Sen. Schumer says the senator is not suggesting the government should pay off borrowers' loans in full. The spokesperson says Schumer believes a mixture of counseling and restructuring of the loans would bring down the costs of the program considerably. He says Schumer hasn't finalized a plan, and that Schumer has said banks and lenders should foot part of the bill.
But even a partial bailout plan would cost far more than a few hundred million dollars.
Larry Litton, whose company Litton Loan Servicing oversees the payments on 400,000 subprime loans, says on average it costs his company $16,000 to put one of its customers through a "loan modification" program if which borrowers get moved into loans with slightly lower rates. That would put the price tag of a nationwide program to assist troubled borrowers at $17.6 billion, using Cagan's default estimates.
"The numbers are going to get very large," says Raphael Bostic, a professor of economics at the University of Southern California. "I don't think this is a feasible plan."
100 biggest markets - where the growth is
A historic rise in delinquency rates among borrowers with low credit ratings has raised concerns that a record number of Americans in the next few years will be unable to pay their mortgage. Many of those borrowers were put into loans with low teaser rates that are now adjusting upward, sometimes doubling their monthly mortgage payment.
Consumer advocate groups say those loans, with steeply rising payments, were pushed on borrowers who didn't understand the terms. Advocates say a government bailout, even a large one, is appropriate because regulators didn't do enough to stop predatory lending, and because of the high cost of foreclosures.
"The cost of not doing anything would be devastating to many communities around the country," says Lisa Rise, a vice president at the nonprofit National Fair Housing Alliance.
Rise notes that even a $120 billion bailout would not be without precedent. Economists estimate the federal government spent upwards of $150 billion to resolve the Savings and Loan Crisis of the late 1980s and 1990s.
Still economists say bailout could have the effect of causing more defaults. "If the plan is to pay off loans when people quit, then I plan to quit paying my loan," says Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics.
What's more, some economists say a bailout could encourage more risky lending in the future. "A bailout would validate what some of these lenders and borrowers did, which we now understand was reckless," says Carl Tannenbaum, president of the National Association of for Business Economics.
"I don't think that's what we want to do."
Calif. mortgage defaults hit near-10-year high
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/16/real_estate/bc.usa.subprime.californiadefaults.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007041618
Defaults up 148 percent from last year, driven by stagnating home prices, resetting adjustable loans.
April 16 2007: 6:48 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -- The number of mortgage default notices sent to California homeowners last quarter rose to its highest in nearly 10 years as home prices stagnated and rates on adjustable loans pushed higher, a report released Monday said.
Mortgage lenders filed 46,760 notices of default from January through March, marking an increase of 23.1 percent from the previous quarter and 148 percent from the year-earlier period, according to a report by DataQuick Information Systems, a real estate information service.
The first quarter's default level was the highest for the most populous U.S. state since the second quarter of 1997. It came amid a sharp rise in defaults on mortgages held by subprime borrowers, or borrowers with blemished credit, across the United States.
The low introductory interest rates on many such mortgages have been expiring, replaced by much higher rates that have made monthly mortgage payments too expensive for numerous households to maintain. Additionally, their options for refinancing their mortgages have been limited because home prices in many markets have been largely flat or slipping.
Many analysts say a surge of foreclosures is in the making and that it will weigh an already sluggish housing market, hitting such homebuilders as Pulte (Charts), D.R. Horton (Charts) and Centex (Charts) and maybe slowing the broader economy.
"Defaults tend to happen after a certain length of time and today's activity reflects a peak in the number of home loans made back in the summer of 2005. Additionally, the loans being made back then were riskier because of the subprime activity, as well as higher appreciation rates. It's easier to make a loan when the security for that loan is going up in value than when values are flat," said Marshall Prentice, president of DataQuick.
Riskiest loans inland
Most mortgages in California that went into default in the first quarter were originated between April 2005 and May 2006, and their median age was 15 months.
According to DataQuick, mortgages were least likely to go into default in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties, three affluent coastal markets with a tight supply of housing that has helped prevent home prices from slipping.
4 new real estate tools
The likelihood of default was highest in inland Sacramento, Riverside and San Joaquin counties, where prospective first-time home buyers rushed in during the housing boom in search of relatively affordable housing.
Squeezed from pricey coastal markets, many Californians moved to such interior areas and used adjustable-rate mortgages to purchase houses in scores of new home developments. They now are facing higher interest rates on their loans and rising mortgage payments, while home values in those markets decline.
"It's hard for me to say whether or not the damage is done in those areas," said economist Alan Gin of the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.
"It probably won't be until 2008 before we seen some improvement," Gin said, referring to California's default trend. "I anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in late 2007 and into 2008, and I expect that will help give some support to the housing market."
watch http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=145
Another Hour with Nouriel Rubini!
Another excellent hour with Professor Roubini on Bloomberg. Shortened running time as all commercial breaks have been removed.
Originally aired on: 4/14/2007 on Bloomberg
Running Time: 10 minutes 41 seconds
Heebner: “Home Prices Decline at Least 20%”
The always colorful Ken Heebner, portfolio manager for the Boston-based CGM Realty Fund, talks at length about his outlook for the nations housing markets. Heebner see the greatest home price decline since the Great Depression coming with at least a 20% decline.
Originally aired on: 4/13/2007 on Bloomberg
Running Time: 12 minutes 1 seconds
Lennar Offering Up to 33% Off on Inventory Homes in Phoenix
By twist
http://housingdoom.com/2007/04/21/lennar-offering-33-percent-off/#more-619
Hat-tip to Housingdoom (again) for this one. One word folks: FIRESALE!
Man, wanna have some fun? Run around to new home communities and ask for 50% off the original price. At least you'll get a nice counter offer. But obviously don't buy unless you can rent the place out for positive cash flow. Do that math with the builder on that one too...
Oh, for extra credit fun, go knock on doors in these new home communities and let the neighbors know how far their homes have fallen in value since they bought. Let 'em know the builder is conducting a historic firesale that will destroy the comps for years to come.
You might want to bring protection.
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
California home prices to weaken further: Goldman
Countrywide could be hurt by exposure to Golden State, bank says
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:21 PM ET Apr 20, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Investment bank Goldman Sachs is increasingly concerned about the health of California's real estate market and reckons mortgage giant Countrywide Financial could be harder hit than other lenders because of its big exposure to the state.
Countrywide shares slipped 2.5% to $37.28 on Friday, leaving them down more than 11% so far this year.
Mortgage delinquencies jumped 46% in California last year, vs. a 5% increase nationally, Goldman said in a note to clients late Thursday.
Delinquencies on prime and subprime adjustable-rate mortgages in California soared by 78% and 60% respectively, vs. 33% and 24% across the U.S., the bank added, citing recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Median California home prices are still creeping up, and the state's strong employment trends should support the real estate market. But Goldman is worried that surging prices in the state in recent years weren't driven by traditional factors such as strong employment and income growth. Instead, the bank reckons an increase in ARM mortgages offered to borrowers who were already stretching to buy high-priced homes fueled the boom.
Now that lenders are cutting back some of these types of loans and regulators are beginning to crack down, California home prices could begin falling later this year, especially in high-price cities and towns, Goldman said.
"Many metros in California have home prices that are not justified by the underlying fundamentals," Goldman analysts James Fotheringham, Daniel Zimmerman and Monica Gabel, wrote in their note to investors. "Instead house price trends have been driven by the availability of subprime and non-traditional credit."
Originations of subprime mortgages, which are offered to poorer borrowers with blemished credit records, could drop 30% to 50% in 2007 and this contraction in the availability of credit will hit California's real estate market harder than elsewhere, the analysts said.
Ten of the top 12 metropolitan areas for subprime mortgages last year were in California, with Stockton topping the list. More than 40% of home loans in that town, nestled in the state's central valley east of San Francisco, were subprime in 2006, the analysts noted.
With fewer subprime loans available and more delinquencies likely, California home prices will probably weaken further in 2007, the analysts said.
That's not good news for Countrywide (CFC : Countrywide Financial Corp
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CFC37.36, -0.86, -2.3%) . Almost half of the company's $71.8 billion mortgage portfolio and more than a quarter of its home loan servicing business is from California, the Goldman analysts noted.
Countrywide has also offered a lot of option ARMs. These types of mortgages let borrowers pay less than the interest they owe on the loan each month, for a certain period of time. If borrowers chose this option, the size of their loan grows and when they finally have to start paying off the principal, the monthly payments can increase a lot.
Mortgages offered to prime borrowers (people with high credit scores and less debt) haven't experienced large increases in delinquencies. But option ARMs are one of the few types of "prime" home loans that have begun to deteriorate, Goldman said.
About 46% of the principal from Countrywide's mortgage portfolio is from option ARMs, and many of these loans were probably originated in California, Goldman noted, adding that this is a "risky combination."
Countrywide will likely have to set aside more money to cover loan losses and that will cut into profits, the analysts said. They cut their earnings forecasts for the lender by 3% in 2007 and 2008 and by 4% in 2009.
The analysts also reduced their price target to $32 from $33 and reiterated their sell recommendation.
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco
Subprime mortgage crisis is a big problem. In response to aggressive lending practices by subprime mortgage lenders anti-predatory lending laws can be enacted that regulated the provision of high-risk mortgages. However, research shows that these laws have not been effective in limiting the growth of such bad credit mortgages lending. But on the other hand with lending standards now tightened, fewer borrowers will qualify for loans. That's a double whammy for housing — more homes on the market and fewer buyers. For example, in markets where home prices might have fallen 3 percent because of the general housing downturn, the presence of a lot of subprime borrowers in trouble could magnify that to a 6 percent price drop.
There isn’t one day that passes that you don’t see bad financial news in the newspaper or on the television or radio. Well that’s all going to change now, especially if you live in the New Jersey Shore towns of Avon, Belmar, Spring Lake, Sea Girt, Manasquan, Point Pleasant, Bay Head, Mantoloking, Normandy Beach, Chadwick, Lavalette, Ortley Beach, or Seaside Park. According to Paul R Hauke, a Realtor Associate with Prudential Zack Shore Properties with 11 offices along the Jersey Shore, a specialist in Ocean Front, Waterfront and Resort Properties along the New Jersey Shore prices are holding steady and in many areas increasing. The reason is that people are buying along the Jersey Shore and the demand is strong. For instance many buyers who have large amounts of cash sitting in bank accounts that are earning very, very low interest have been buying Jersey Shore Resort Homes for cash. They are figuring on getting the rental money and the appreciation on the property. They figure the return will absolutely beat whatever they are earning in the bank and they also have the use of the property when not rented. Smart buyers.
On the other hand are the sellers. Sellers in such great Jersey Shore towns are reaping the benefits. There prices have been holding and they are reaping the gains. There are properties from the mid $200,000.00 range up to multi millions. Along the price range there are new and converted condos and new and completely renovated houses and of course one of a kind mansions and estates.
On the waterfront at the Jersey Shore prices are still climbing. Paul R Hauke, a Realtor Associate with Pruzack, studies and tracks the real estate values along the Jersey Shore and has found that Waterfront properties prices have been escalating. Properties with docks for boats and easy access to the Bays and Ocean are still high on demand. Small homes in such areas as Ocean Beach , with docks , can still be had for $300,000.00 to $400,000.00 with a moderately priced waterfront home with deep water docks and easy fishing access still bringing $1,000,000.00 plus. In towns like Point Pleasant Boro. Ocean front homes, both on the beach and across the street from the beaches, in such towns as Spring Lake, Sea Girt, Bay Head, and Mantoloking bring three, four and five million.
Many Jersey Shore Real Estate buyers are looking for second homes now that they can make year round homes later. Such houses between $900,000.00 and $2,000,000.00 have seen a 25 % increase in pricing. Some Jersey Shore Realtors have reported their sales up as much as 26% over last year.
Whatever your desire the Jersey Shore offers great Real Estate and great family memories and great pricing. There never has been a better time to buy and invest in real estate at the Jersey Shore.
T o view properties for sale at the Jersey Shore from Atlantic Highlands to Long Beach Island go to www.asburyparklife.com/jerseyshorerealestate.html , the # 1 source for activities, events, and real estate along the Jersey Shore.
There isn’t one day that passes that you don’t see bad financial news in the newspaper or on the television or radio. Well that’s all going to change now, especially if you live in the New Jersey Shore towns of Avon, Belmar, Spring Lake, Sea Girt, Manasquan, Point Pleasant, Bay Head, Mantoloking, Normandy Beach, Chadwick, Lavalette, Ortley Beach, or Seaside Park. According to Paul R Hauke, a Realtor Associate with Prudential Zack Shore Properties with 11 offices along the Jersey Shore, a specialist in Ocean Front, Waterfront and Resort Properties along the New Jersey Shore prices are holding steady and in many areas increasing. The reason is that people are buying along the Jersey Shore and the demand is strong. For instance many buyers who have large amounts of cash sitting in bank accounts that are earning very, very low interest have been buying Jersey Shore Resort Homes for cash. They are figuring on getting the rental money and the appreciation on the property. They figure the return will absolutely beat whatever they are earning in the bank and they also have the use of the property when not rented. Smart buyers.
On the other hand are the sellers. Sellers in such great Jersey Shore towns are reaping the benefits. There prices have been holding and they are reaping the gains. There are properties from the mid $200,000.00 range up to multi millions. Along the price range there are new and converted condos and new and completely renovated houses and of course one of a kind mansions and estates.
On the waterfront at the Jersey Shore prices are still climbing. Paul R Hauke, a Realtor Associate with Pruzack, studies and tracks the real estate values along the Jersey Shore and has found that Waterfront properties prices have been escalating. Properties with docks for boats and easy access to the Bays and Ocean are still high on demand. Small homes in such areas as Ocean Beach , with docks , can still be had for $300,000.00 to $400,000.00 with a moderately priced waterfront home with deep water docks and easy fishing access still bringing $1,000,000.00 plus. In towns like Point Pleasant Boro. Ocean front homes, both on the beach and across the street from the beaches, in such towns as Spring Lake, Sea Girt, Bay Head, and Mantoloking bring three, four and five million.
Many Jersey Shore Real Estate buyers are looking for second homes now that they can make year round homes later. Such houses between $900,000.00 and $2,000,000.00 have seen a 25 % increase in pricing. Some Jersey Shore Realtors have reported their sales up as much as 26% over last year.
Whatever your desire the Jersey Shore offers great Real Estate and great family memories and great pricing. There never has been a better time to buy and invest in real estate at the Jersey Shore.
T o view properties for sale at the Jersey Shore from Atlantic Highlands to Long Beach Island go to www.asburyparklife.com/jerseyshorerealestate.html , the # 1 source for activities, events, and real estate along the Jersey Shore.
Great post, very interesting concept. You make a good point that all the factors need to come into play. Selecting a good property agent is most important for property management who helps you throughout the buying process and beyond to completion.
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