Tuesday, June 07, 2005

All the Housing Bubble Talk is Not A Wall Street Plot

This article says that some believe all the talk about the housing bubble is a Wall Street talk to shift peoples money from real estate back into the stock market. The author straightens things out though.

"For hard evidence, Jim Grant reported some fascinating numbers in his latest issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Jim says that from 1983 to 1998, housing sales stayed relatively constant, representing between 8% and 10% of GDP (the economy). Then things took off...

As of the latest numbers, home sales as a percent of the economy are at 17%. For the statisticians out there, that's 3.4 standard deviations from the mean. For the non-statisticians out there, speculation in home buying is literally off the charts. Said another way, it's not a Wall Street conspiracy that speculation in housing is at a statistical extreme; it's a fact."

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