Wednesday, April 05, 2006

3589 Homes for sale on the MLS

Each week we look at the MLS for eastern Monmouth County to see where inventory levels are. Today, there were 3589 homes for sale compared to 3509 last week. Inventories are growing rapidly here at the Shore. As a number of news stories have mentioned and the other blogs keep pointing out, inventories of unsold homes are growing all over the country at a pretty rapid pace.

This past winter, many housing bulls were predicting that sales activity would increase in the traditionally busy spring selling season, while I guess that could still happen here, I don’t think it is happening in parts of the country where spring starts early. I have not seen any indications that sales in Florida or other warmer states have picked up with the arrival of spring and warmer weather in those places.

9 Comments:

Blogger lindsey said...

It's still a little early, but I think it's time to say that the collapse is under way.

Today (Friday) the E. Monmouth MLS is at 3,629. At the end of March I guesstimated that it would reach 3,700 by the end of April if things didn't deteriorate too much and that would still be bad. It's beginning to look a lot closer to 4k which is what I figured would be a truly bad number.

The rest of the county is seeing even more growth in listings with W. Monmouth at 2133 and S. Monmouth at 961.

Since the start of the year the listings growth has been as follows:


E. Mon. +28 percent
W. Mon. +43 percent
S. Mon. +36 percent

Ocean Cty, which now has 5,863 MLS listings is up 32 percent.

Monmouth Cty listings didn't even pause to catch their breath at the start of this month. A last day surge of postings on March 31 allowed Ocean Cty to have a small drop, but it's gained back all that and more.

Finally, a question. I've basically considered the growth in the E. Mon. MLS lags the western part of the county and Ocean because there is less new construction. I've poked around a bit and it looks to me like most of the new construction in Long Branch is not listed on the MLS, if that's true, how true do you think it is for other areas and how much do you think it affects inventory?

Friday, April 07, 2006 1:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yet still, prices do not seem to be coming down. I live in Western Monmouth and I follow all the new home developments around my area:
- Manlapan Estates, Centex, (they keep saying only 7 or 8 lots left for the last 12 months now
- Two Toll Brothers developments seem to be almost sold out, Mcmansions in the truest sense of the word....too bad the farmers sold out... :-)
- Heritage Hill Estates, 11 sold out of 21, seems to have been this way now for months
- the list goes on...

but no price drops yet....I guess the next 3 to 5 months will be the real test for this bubble. I'd like to move up some day to a little bigger place someday but NOT AT THESE PRICES !

good luck all.

-1200sqft

Friday, April 07, 2006 9:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in Little silver ,all I ever see on Real Estate signs is "UNDER CONTRACT" ....in L.S,Rumson,and even in Fair Haven...homes still seem to be selling

Saturday, April 08, 2006 8:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Centex did have a "one day sale" a couple of weeks back. They knocked off anywhere from $15K to $50K per house according to the ads they placed.

I would imagine those deals are still available. Also, pressure is really just starting to build.

Sales have slowed throughout the country but even where sales have slowed, prices have pretty much held and in some cases continued to rise. The psychology hasn't quite caught up with the market, but 40% vacation home and investment property sales can't go on forever.

Saturday, April 08, 2006 8:06:00 PM  
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