Wednesday, August 09, 2006

4559 Houses on Eastern Monmouth MLS

Last week the count 4567. Its the middle of August so it should not be much of a surprise to see inventory levels flatten out or decline. I bet we see an upturn in the fall and then another decrease in inventory around the holidays.

38 Comments:

Anonymous rbyzell said...

i was in asbury on saturday. walked into the wesley sales complex. they had valet parking. not one person was in there. the sales rep told me that only half of the complex was sold. one bedrooms are going for $450,000. three more complex's are planned. the sales rep told me that they are really scared when i said that they won't make it to number three. does anyone else have any feelings about asbury?

Wednesday, August 09, 2006 7:54:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Asbury is toast. I went to an open house in Interlaken and there was a large contingent of gays also there. They all had houses in Asbury Park but were looking to get out. It'a all about the property taxes- way too high in Asbury.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006 9:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Future ex-benny said...

$450K for a ONE br in Asbury Park? ASBURY PARK??

For goddsakes, why?

It would seem to me that if I wanted people to take a chance on Newark-on-the-Sea I would want the risk to seem mitigated. Right now it sseems like an everything's-riding-on-it dice roll.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006 9:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From the NY Times today, 6/10. Looks like prices are down 10-15% already.


"In 2004, the latest year for which data is available, Ocean City, N.J., at 73 percent, headed the list of metropolitan areas with high shares of second homes. From 2002 to 2005, home prices in the area, which includes Cape May, rose at an average annual rate of 17 percent, compared with 10 percent for the nation as a whole and 14 percent for New Jersey.

“These have been the most juiced-up markets,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

But this spring and summer, median home prices in the Ocean City area have fallen by 10 to 15 percent from a year earlier. Sales have slowed and more houses are sitting on the market, according to Nicholas J. Marotta, president of the Ocean City Board of Realtors.

He blames speculators for rapidly inflating and then depressing the market by trading in condominiums and oceanfront homes that they bought with low-interest loans requiring only small down payments."

Thursday, August 10, 2006 8:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I worked with a realtor last year while we were considering a purchase. We instead moved into a rental in Middletown where we are now. The realtor was very nice and helpful, and we have since stayed in touch. She has now contacted me with 3 or 4 places that she thought I might be interested in. The most recent, was originally listed at $799,000, it is now at $524,000. I did the drive by and almost ran my car off the road. The place was a disaster, the owner (who paid 299,000 in 2003) was trying to pimp it as a great deal since it sits on alomst 1.3 acres.

I am finally starting to see some panic in my area and prices are coming down a bit. I think we need another 7-10 months for it to really set in and you will be able to pick up the houses now listed at 550-600K for 400-500k.

Thursday, August 10, 2006 10:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My cousin just sold their Clintontownship, Hunterdon County house.
Asked 489.9K Sold @ 485K in 17 days.
Their moving to Texas next week.

Friday, August 11, 2006 9:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Many NJ shore regions had their property taxes increase this year by 10%. They are also seeing their insurance premiums rise, due to hurricane/flood zones. This is a very scary time to be looking to buy, with taxes going up and housing market slowing.
I still do not see prices coming down enough to consider buying now.

Friday, August 11, 2006 9:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A friend of mine in Short Hills, he is a builder, has had three homes sitting for a couple of months, this weekend, he was non-stop showing them all to several different families. Had zero time for family. He says it is weird but since the fed is doing nothing the interest is coming back. Seems like 3 - 5 million dollar homes are not in a freefall in the better communities.

Asbury Park is such a scam, for years that place was rife with corruption on top of corruption, all of the sudden, everything is rosy and a half a million buys a one bedroom, give me a break.

Saturday, August 12, 2006 4:19:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Went to look at a house in Interlaken. Did some research- the house sold in December of 2003 for $1,050,000. The guy did about $100,000 worth of work to it and now is asking $3.2 million!!!! Please give me a break!!!He expects $2 million for house sitting for 2 1/2 years!!

Saturday, August 12, 2006 8:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey NJCOAST;
If your not willing to pay 3.2 million, why did you waste the homeowners and realtors time?

In your scenario, everyone who was smart to buy before or during the runup should now sell for T-Bill return plus their investment, to you! If they were dumb and bought last year they now need to knock 50% off the price for you!

So what world do you live in???

Monday, August 14, 2006 11:24:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

I will not feed the troll.

Monday, August 14, 2006 11:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah I'm going to buy that house and sell it in 2010 for $27 million. Our realtor troll sees nothing wrong with homes tripling every 2 years. Who needs lottery tickets when you have a sure thing with real estate.

Monday, August 14, 2006 2:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just HATE it when people over price $1 million+ homes!

Monday, August 14, 2006 4:04:00 PM  
Blogger lindsey said...

Ed,

I have been expecting flat inventories too, but that's not what I'm seeing. There has been an unusual amount of volatility in the inventory numbers this month and the Aug. 7 to Aug.14 jump for Mon/Ocean is much larger than I would have expected.
There aren't many weeks where the number has jumped by 200, but this week we are up 201 over the four regions. S. Mon is the smallest inventory of the four, but it jumped by 27 (2.5 percent) from 1,069 to 1,096.
W. Mon which was 2,726 on 8/7 hit 2,760 and E. Mon went from 4,573 to 4,611. Ocean Cty jumped 102 to 7277.

A month ago, and even two weeks ago, I would have said there is no way E. Mon would make it to 2,000 more listings yoy by Mid. Sept. but now I have to say there is at least an outside chance.

If it does make it to 4,919, that would be an increase of better than 68 percent; right now we are at 58 percent with a bit more than a month to go.

Monday, August 14, 2006 4:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So let me get this straight NJCOAST. You go to a home offered for sale and because it was sold 2.5 years earlier for 2 million less, 66% less than they are offering it for, you figure no way am I going to buy that. So basically, you aren't looking for a home. You are just going to waste people’s time as you have with your post. Would you have signed the papers if the home had been bought for 9 million and was now offered for 66% less? Do you always predicate your actions based upon those of others? Have you no ability to act on your own? No self will, except when you want to waste others time? Then when someone calls you on it you hide and say no comment? You are the classic loser mentality. Something that has gone up can’t be a good buy. Even if you like the home and were really a buyer and not a lurker, you would think that no way am I going to be SOOOOO stupid as to actually buy something because one day in the past it was priced for less money. Jesus, haven’t you heard of inflation and appreciation? That doesn’t mean that that home you wasted the broker and owners time with the other day is worth much more than it was in December 2003 but YOU DID DRAG the broker there, they didn’t drag you there. Then you say, “ohhhh I am not going to feed the troll”. Waste peoples time, then hide. Nice life.

Monday, August 14, 2006 4:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Relax 4:13. njcoast's job is to complain about how tough life is when over-a-million-dollar homes are priced too high.

If you've read this site long enough you'd see through it too.

Monday, August 14, 2006 4:41:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Talk about hiding-Mr or Mrs. ANONYMOUS!!! You must be a very frustrated seller or realtor. I sold in 2005 when I realised that home prices were getting away from the fundamentals. Oh and I sold without a realtor saving myself the 6% commision.

Did your income TRIPLE in the last few years to stay abreast with house prices tripling? If inflation was the reason the home prices rose- why didn't your salary go up? Instead it was the lowering of interest rates and suicide interest only mortgages that caused the rise. Three trillion dollars worth of these loans will be adjusting in the next year and you will find many people in trouble. Owners will not be able to refinance because they will be underwater in their loans, hence MORE homes will be thrown on the market. Ever hear of supply and demand? What happens to prices when there is too much supply? Why is it so much cheaper to rent than to own right now? Houses will no longer be an ATM machine. Why do you get so mad when people point out that housing prices are out of whack?

As far as wasting the realtors time, that is their job. Anyway I wanted to see for myself what the owner could have done in the last two years to merit such a price rise- turns out not much- just the usual granite countertops and stainless steel appliances and painting.

I am happy as a clam with my profits from my sale and watching as inventory piles up and reduced signs are cropping up all over. I am sitting with my cash and waiting to swoop in when this house of cards falls.As a matter of fact it's time to go to my beach cabana and have a martini. You on the other hand seem quite angry. Take a chill pill.

Monday, August 14, 2006 4:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The first honest admission, you intended to waste the owners and realtors time.

"As far as wasting the realtor’s time, that is their job. Anyway I wanted to see for myself what the owner could have done in the last two years to merit such a price rise"

I am not a realtor, but I doubt their job is to shepherd you around so you can be a voyeur into others homes, shame on you. Please tell me you did not go in root around in the bedrooms drawers and sniff any panties.

"Did your income TRIPLE in the last few years to stay abreast with house prices tripling? If inflation was the reason the home prices rose- why didn't your salary go up?"

Actually I work for myself; I don't rely on others to support me. But sadly my income did not triple in the last few years; in fact it has gone down. Of course in the nineties, when I bought my real estate, my income more than tripled year over year for several years.

"Ever hear of supply and demand? What happens to prices when there is too much supply? Why is it so much cheaper to rent than to own right now?"

Challenge! Why don't you post some numbers justifying all the cost versus just continuing to live where you live? I challenge you because you will find out you are wrong. Unless of course you downsize very quickly, like maybe a van down by the river.

"Oh and I sold without a realtor saving myself the 6% commision."

You may have sold for less than if you had hired a full service broker and paid the fees. http://homebuying.about.com/od/realestateagents/qt/FullServiceAgts.htm

Once again, being a cheap small minded twit when you sold your mobile home does not entitle you to rummage around in someone’s underwear drawer. BTW when did they start calling rolling rocks martinis?

Monday, August 14, 2006 5:34:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

You are sooo cranky what's the matter did your HELOC readjust up again for the 5th time. Too bad you've tapped out all the equity in your home- was the hummer and flat screen TV and that European trip really worth it? Should have sold when the going was good!

Rent vs own MLS # 10094886- Monmouth Beach-originally $4.2 million- Reduced to $3,425 million. Property taxes $31,680.00. Now for rent for $10,000. a month (or present ALL offers-so maybe less). Even with 20% down and a 6 1/4% fixed loan the mortgage and tax payment would be more than $10,000 a month. And that does not take into account any maintenance.Want some more examples?

I sold for 12% MORE than a realtor had suggested we list our house for. Fortunatly someone knocked on our door during the crazy times in the spring of '05 and offered us more! It was just amazing what they were paying for those beachfront trailers last year!

Oh I like Grey Goose and three olives- thank you.I'm also self employed but what has that got to do with anything?

Monday, August 14, 2006 10:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As opposed to your blithering self-serving example let us look at a real life example.

Couple with 2 children (normal family) moves to town they have 1,000,000 in the bank. Wishes to purchase home but NJCOAST convinces them not to. So they rent. Now in my town 1 Million gets you into a 3 maybe 4-bedroom home and 4800 - 6000 gets you the same in rent.

Couple puts money in US Gov't 30 year bonds (anything else is speculative) currently 5.104%. Unfortunately for them inflation is approximately 4.2% (CPI YOY) so they are really going to earn .9% or 9,000 per year after inflation. Okay sounds like a juicy deal so far. Now when they moved in there was a 1 Million dollar home but NJCOAST between swills of Night Train promises that the home will be far less real soon. So they wait. The first year goes by and they have shelled out 64,800 less the 9,000 from the bonds or 55,800 to take a chance on the house getting real cheap in the future bloodbath NJCOAST has promised. Low and behold, the house actually is now 9.95 and NJCAOST then promises further declines, so another year goes by and another 55,800 is burned without building equity, except this year the home is unchanged. NJCOAST promises there is an Armageddon coming soon, wait, and the third year goes by and wait, after 167,400 dollars the home is just sitting there offered at 9.95 million while they really need it to go down in contravention to the long term trend of the last 70 years of rising. Gee they got a great chance to make rental payments and help someone else build equity what a great deal.

But hey, most people don't have the million dollars so this is a crap example! Okay run the numbers with a 6 or 7 % loan on 800,00 then back out the tax advantage and you will see that the same thing holds. 800 K loan @ 6.5% is 5,056.54 taxes are probably around a 1,000 per month so you are back to the 6,000 number. Don't forget though, out of the 5056 a large part of that is tax advantaged so you can write it off.

Due to the cost of having to find suitable accommodations or the replacement cost of lodging morons like NJCOAST inevitable dispense BAD advice to others when they offer up now is the time to sell your homes and live in that rental unit. Sure, if you sell well and then dramatically downsize and then buy well you can capture some money. But most people have children who they can't shuffle around like baggage and move from schools, most people weren’t circus geeks like NJCOAST.

None of this post suggests you buy poorly either. In many towns in NJ including NJ real estate got way ahead of itself. Not so far ahead of itself that you can now sell and rent and do well for yourself unless you are a loner sucking down a bottle of vodka every night. If you look though at quality locations (remember: location, location location) and are patient, there are still homes that can be purchased that are not crazy and that will most likely not decrease in value over the coming years. You have to be intelligent about all of your decisions when purchasing a home; it is the biggest investments the average American makes.

You want to know why I rant here sometimes, because there are people here that think that dispensing advice like the world will end, there will be a bloodbath and all this other extremist crap are not helping anyone else. The one thing I have in common with them is that I think the real estate market did get ahead of itself in some markets and bubbled in others, but this pop in values came after several years of little real estate appreciation between 1990 and 1998 so the pop in values between 1998 and 2005 is not that unusual and the most likely events is that values in some towns will be hit solidly but other quality locations just might not change for a couple of years.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 8:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

or here's another real life example. A couple buys a $1m house with 20% down. They borrow $800k @ 6.5% and pay $52k in interest. They're in the 28% tax bracket and get a $14,560 mortgage deduction. Their net cost is $37,440. One year from now their $1m purchase is now worth $950k, a loss of 5% or another $50,000. Combined with their mortgage cost of $37,440, they're now out a total of $87,440.

So who's fictitious example is more realistic? Yours with Mr & Mrs CommonFolk with $1m in cash or mine with a $1m property depreciating 5%?

C'mon man, give us a break and take that crap elsewhere.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 12:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Okay, so for that year they lived where for free, your house? Or was the alternative that they would have to rent at between 4800 - 6000 a month for a comparable property?

Were they forced to sell the next year to realize their loss? In your world does real estate just keep going down forever?

I know it is difficult to keep focused, but I covered these examples so small-minded dweebs like you could have an opportunity to understand.

Wake up, and take YOUR example out two years with the cost of renting a like residence. Who is the winner then? If you don't have the math skills don't be embarrassed, just admit and go for that GED.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 1:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The example was to point out that they can rent for 1 year and lose $60k or buy now and lose $87k. After a year they can buy if the market changes. The smarter choice for the coming year may be to rent and lose less money, but it seems you can't do arithmetic to figure that out.

Dude, what's with all the name calling and personal criticism? Are you 14 years old with a lot of pimples?

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 1:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, 45 with a lot of pimples.

As for the childish responses I post, usually it is to the doom and gloom crowd who spew these completely fact less rants to support their apocalyptic view of real estate. Somehow Diane Turton is the brunt of ridicule because she posted some simple, sane, common sense things anyone can do to help improve their chances of selling their home. It is a statistical fact that doing those things improves your chances. No one is going to buy a million dollar home because it smells like apple pie, but if it smells of feces, you can bet it isn't going to help.

Some people on this blog jump all over this as proof positive that real estate is going down 110%! There was some guy a couple of week’s back who said that because LBI is a barrier island, no home was worth more than 100,000 dollars. What institution allows patient’s access to the internet? That statement is a waste of electrons. Sometimes, it is like listening to the Iranian president speaking, it just doesn't make sense.

So when I get in someone’s face it is because they are making lopsided or inane comments. They have earned it.

This blog many times, has great information not easily found elsewhere and reading it is mostly a pleasure. Yeah speculators left holding the bag are in for a lot of sleepless nights, but anyone who thinks this is the next dustbowl should put the lysergic acid diethylamide back in the bottle

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 1:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who are you to cast aspersions on other people because their opinions are different than yours. People on this blog express their OPINIONS. If you don't agree with those opinions that's fine - I don't always agree with everyone. But don't insult people because you disagree with them -that is childish and at 45 you should know better.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 9:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RE might blow up or it might not. I just recall that the first time I became dimmly aware of the last RE recession was when I noticed all the "For Sale" signs along Rumson Road.

Last weekend I traveled the length of that road and counted 14 such signs in Rumson alone.

Then I remembered the age old adage: those who fail to learn history probably didn't do well in math or english either.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 10:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah makes sense.

Let's let people post stuff like LBI real estate is going to 100,000. That is useful information everyone should have.

Let's let people dispense sell and rent advice without any basis to that argument.

Let's let people call Diane Turton a skank and not say anything about that poster because he is only expressing his opinion and she is one of THOSE people, you know a broker! Forget that over years of hard work and fortuitous conditions she has grown a solid business.

Best to let people express their opinions as long as we are all happy together.

In my humble opinion, when fools like these post and they are allowed unchallenged, eventually all that is left after the intelligent people leave, is the fools.

Why don't you volunteer your time to moderate this blog and kick malcontents like me off? If you don't think my opinion is worthy of your time, take some action besides that little drivel you posted.

Can we have a group hug please?

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 8:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

By Joe Richter
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Home construction in the U.S. dropped
last month to the lowest level in almost two years after higher
mortgage rates slowed sales and left builders with bloated
inventories.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 8:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with you on that point, that poster should not have called DT a skank,and you should not be hurling insults at njcoast or anyone else because you don't agree with them.People are not going to take what you say seriously if you resort to name calling and insults. As far as having you removed from this blog, I would never call for anyone's removal because I believe in free speech and your right to express your opinion.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 10:15:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

According to Jeffrey Otteau:

"The weakening of the residential real estate market is occuring primarily in the coastal markets of the country, including New Jersey. In New Jersey, the number of homes contracted
for sale in June ran 9% below May and 24% below June of 2005 continuing the pattern set earlier this year dimming hope for a market comeback antytime soon"

And just to clarify I never suggested anyone sell their home and rent- I merely stated that it is what I did with my shore home (second home). So Mr. or Mrs. Rant before you go off on people maybe you should read the posts more carefully.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 11:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still want a group hug.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 11:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still want a group hug.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 11:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone know where one can find statistics on rental income at the Jersey Shore?

I would be interested in looking at trends in rents at the shore, LBI in particular.


Mr. Rant

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 11:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr Rant, I know where you can get rental stats, current year, historical, etc. But I don't like you so I won't tell.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 3:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now you have hurt my feelings...I think I will trash this blog forever becasue of you...

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 4:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

seriously, why doesn't someone do something about this idiot

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 5:40:00 PM  
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