Saturday, September 23, 2006

Yes, It's Different Here

The unique places that are "different" than other places will probably fall the hardest, since they were also bid up the highest. Also, it's hard to believe, that in this point in the cycle, and with all of the media attention the bubble has been getting, an economist would imply that real estate in his area is not susceptible to price decreases. This guy almost sounds exactly like homebuilder Bob Toll circa spring 2005.



snip...

"In southern New Jersey, an increase in distressed homeowners is even less likely.

RealtyTrac's figures for the region show that foreclosures in Atlantic County actually fell 19 percent from the first to second quarters of this year. In Cape May County, the drop was 18 percent, in Cumberland County 48 percent, and in Ocean County the decline was 37 percent.

Economist Richard Perniciaro, director of the Center for Regional and Business Research at Atlantic Cape Community College, said strong demand for housing in the region is keeping the market in better shape than most.

"The people who are buying are people who have been coming here all their lives and they didn't look anywhere else," he said. "So we have a pretty sure flow of demand, and that will only get bigger as the boomers retire. New Jersey might have the most Baby Boomers of any state."

Home prices in the region were up 15 percent in the second quarter, a smaller increase but still an increase, he said."

Full article...

11 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"prices up 15 percent"

What BS! From what figures are they getting this from? All I see is a big freeze on buying! Price can't be up if nobody is buying.
Common sense!

What propaganda..

Sunday, September 24, 2006 7:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting in light of the fact that Ocean City, NJ currently has 1800 homes on the market, which is about 10% of all homes in that town! One in ten homes are for sale! And a builder in North Wildwood is auctioning luxury condos for a starting bid of $375k, which is just 55% of the original $650,000 price tag. How does that indicate that prices are up 15%?

Sunday, September 24, 2006 9:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Perhaps in the 10 years that they are planning to move to the shore prices will be at a level that they can afford. In the meantime, inventories are at record levels and growing daily. Agents are taking jobs at the convenience store to pay the bills.
Possibly the data in the report is stale, yes, that it, the data is stale, VERY stale.

Monday, September 25, 2006 7:40:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

NAR August Existing Home Sales Report.

Sales of existing homes fell for the 5th consecutive month as the once-booming housing market slowed further. The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that existing home sales slipped by 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units.
The slowdown in sales was weighing on home prices, with the median price of existing homes sold in August dropping to $225,000, 1.7 percent below August of 2005. It marked the first year-over- year decline in more than 11 years.

Oh but that doesn't apply to the Jersey Shore because it's different here...or is it??

According to the Monmouth County MLS for as of September 25, 2006-

Ocean Township
Year # Closed Median price
Sept 05- 34 $460,000
Sept 06- 3 $375,000

Middletown
Year # closed Median price
Sept 05- 77 $450,000
Sept 06- 31 $399,900

Rumson
Year # closed Median price
Sept 05- 11 $1,950,000
Sept 06- 7 $426,000

Belmar
Year # closed Median price
Sept 05- 8 $910,000
Sept 06- 5 $500,000

Long Branch
Year # closed Median price
Sept 05- 15 $432,000
Sept 06- 10 $340,000

Spring Lake
Year # closed Median Price
Sept 05- 4 $2,310,000
Sept 06- 2 $1,675,000

Asbury Park
Year # closed Median price
Sept 05- 13 $325,000
Sept 06- 9 $210,000

Monday, September 25, 2006 11:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What if
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brought life to
Aig Credit Card Philippines?

Monday, September 25, 2006 11:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey NJ Coast,

Do you have YOY median numbers for NJ locations south of AC?

Such as:

Ocean City
Sea Isle
Avaolon
Stone Harbor

Thx

Monday, September 25, 2006 12:28:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Sorry I only have access to Monmouth County MLS figures. If you know a realtor in Ocean County they can very easily access those numbers for you. The Asbury Park Press online site has a searchable database. Go to APP.COM- on the home page in the middle of the page is a picture of a house- look below it for the site. You can enter an address or street, or a whole town to look at sales. Maybe that will help you!

Monday, September 25, 2006 12:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

any thoughts on the N. Wildwood condos being auctioned off? I'm not familiar with that section of Wildwood. Is this worth pursuing at a starting bid of $375k? The buildings are new and look nice.

Monday, September 25, 2006 3:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It IS different there: For one thing, it's got more sand.

-Jamey

Monday, September 25, 2006 4:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Bottomfeeder said...

ANON 3:07 PM,
The auction for the Wildwood condos start bidding at that price. When the auction is said and done the seller reserves the right to not accept the final bid. Most property auctions through a private auction house-not a foreclosure situation-are done to benefit the SELLER. I also looked into the properties being auctioned in Wildwood Crest. After speaking to the re agent who originally listed the properties, she advised me that the bulder was just trying to run up the price by generating "buzz". He had previously rejected 7 very reasonable offers on 2 of the properties now up for auction. Not saying a good deal cant be had but as usual buyer beware!

Tuesday, September 26, 2006 10:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks bottomfeeder! I didn't know that the seller could decline the winning offer. In that case, I'd say you have NO chance of getting a good deal as a buyer.

Thursday, September 28, 2006 8:52:00 AM  

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