Wednesday, October 18, 2006

4668 Homes on the MLS for Eastern Monmouth

Inventory is coming down from earlier highs. I would guess that listings are expiring and not getting relisted rather than sales getting done. Some people also seem to prefer to play landlord and are renting their homes rather than selling them. Jersey City and Hoboken is starting to see more of this and rents, which had been strong all year, are, anecdotally, starting to ease.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

E Mon listings are indeed more than 100 off their Sept. high, I think it was on the 28th, and the other two Monmouth MLS's and Ocean's are down as well, though not quite as much.

Ocean seems to be a bit more volatile with decent numerical swings up and down, though percentage wise, it's probably close.

For the record:
W. Mon 2747
S. Mon 1084
Ocean 7426


Wednesday, October 18, 2006 10:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


I've been thinking a little bit about this year compared to last. By the end of December listings fell about 20 percent (just about 2K) from September or October's peak to the end of the December.

As I noted earlier, the decline seems to have started earlier this year then last year. I think you pretty much called it with the listings just coming off.

Based on nothing but a feeling I'm going to guess that we will see a lower percentage of inventory decline this year meaning we will have a decline of less than 3,200 units. If I'm right we'll be entering 07 with about 5,000 more MLS listings than we started 06 with and even about 3K more than I saw in the last four months in 05.

Considering how stagnant the existing home market has become, I really wish I had a way to gauge what's going on with new homes.

Any rumors on what's happening with the condos going up on 35 next to Whole Foods in Middletown? What about the new construction in Long Branch?


Wednesday, October 18, 2006 10:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Bill odem said...

yes ,yes homes are selling ,prices are stabilizing things look good ,it looks like a strong spring will be in the cards ,with little inventory prices should resume there upward momentum

Thursday, October 19, 2006 10:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...prices should resume there upward momentum... How do you see that? Who can afford to buy if prices continue to climb? I think prices will drop - not tumble be 10% in spring.

Thursday, October 19, 2006 11:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some people like to go on blogs like this and say that the real estate market will recover in '07. They have no basis for their statements and like to pump up the r.e. market to make themselves feel better because it is very hard for them to come to the realization that their homes may continue to drop in value or perhaps they are agents who are dreading the decline in their incomes. Let's just ignore these poor souls and let them blow out their hot air-anything we can do to help ease their pain.

Thursday, October 19, 2006 4:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Bill odem said...

"Inventory is coming down from earlier highs"....translation ,less homes for sale = higher prices ,basic economics my dear

Friday, October 20, 2006 4:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK - Inventory is coming down, but in our town, about 50 condo units are still being finished, and they are all for sale. Will this efect the SFH market as well? Thanks for your opinions, just researching the market before buying.

Friday, October 20, 2006 9:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We're not dealing with a normal real estate market here. To say that less inventory means higher prices is a very simplistic view which fails to take into account other important factors.The overinflated prices of 2003-2005 were driven up by investors/ flippers and "creative" financing.
The frenzy that we saw during that time no longer exists and banks are starting to chage their lending policies. There are now less buyers and it will continue to be this way for awhile. Many homes did not sell this year because their prices were too high and the mindset of buyers has changed. How would you explain the fact that interest rates have been dropping and still houses are not selling? Where are the buyers? Perhaps you will not see as many homes on the market in '07, but you will not see as many buyers either. I think we will continue to see prices declines next year.

Friday, October 20, 2006 5:48:00 PM  
Anonymous bill odem said...

OK lets see if I got this right ,there is a finite number of homes,unlimited number of buyers,less homes on the market ,so you feel this means prices should fall... obviously you were not in class the day they taught supply and demand ..

Friday, October 20, 2006 7:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Bill... Why don't you read the post before you comment. I said that there are other factors involved here, factors that you may choose to ignore. Re-read the post.Where did I say unlimited number of buyers? I said less buyers. The insane prices of the last few years were driven by factors that are no longer prevalent now. The market is due for a correction. Bottom line, if there are less people buying and making lower offers - which is happening now, prices will not rise.

Friday, October 20, 2006 9:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok Bill, what you say about Economics 101 depends on why there is less inventory.

I can think of two scenarios where less inventory = a bad sign for Realtors.

1) Buyers have bought and now their collective demand is sated. Look at it this way: I used to have two pizza slices in front of me and now I have none. Inventory = 0 Do you think I'll now bid up the price of my next slice?

2) More likely, sellers have given up trying to get their fantasy prices and yanked their listing. Two such sellers around the corner from my brother had their houses on the market since the spring. The signs are gone and the owners remain.

Friday, October 20, 2006 9:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey Bill, how much did you pay for the Brooklyn Bridge last year?

Saturday, October 21, 2006 5:26:00 AM  

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