Wednesday, November 15, 2006

4444 Houses on the MLS for Eastern Monmouth

Last week there were 4514 homes listed.

Inventories have been dropping pretty steadily the past few weeks, but as I've said in past, I think the drop mostly reflects increased de-listings ahead of the holidays rather than an major increase in sales.

I think that prices peaked at the Jersey Shore sometime in the late summer of 2005. At this point, I would guesstimate that we at about month 14 in an approximately 48 month downward cycle. In the coming 3 to 6 months, there will probably be a lull in the amount of attention real estate gets from the mainstream media and some will mis-interpert the lull for an end to the burtsting of bubble. We are likely to see the proverbial "dead cat bounce" in some markets, though not necessarily here at the Shore.

The Spring will probably bring renewed interest in the bubble. That's when I expect to see the "gap down" in prices. Some of the Spring 2006 opportunistic sellers are going to be the Spring 2007 forced sellers and they are going to have to take what they can get on price. Unlike over the past few months, forced sellers are going to be hitting low-ball bids.

11 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are right. Spring '07 will indicate whether it'll be off to the races again or if the bubble will finally burst. The big question is how many sellers will be forced to accept low-ball bids?

Thursday, November 16, 2006 8:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Bioll B said...

It appears from all accounts {BARRONS "high end homes moving well"}....to Greenspan's remarks that the worst may be over ,to inventory shrinking on MLS..I would say we should be firming up from hers ...all agree ?

Thursday, November 16, 2006 8:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree. Inventory always drops this time of year. Homes simply don't move around the holidays and leaving your listing up too long makes a seller look desparate. This perceived desparation generally results in lower potential buyers will make. I agree with anonymous that Spring '07 will be the real indicator as to the real state of the market. I predict prices will be about 10% lower around this time next year. In my opinion, any adjustment that will occur will not be much more significant than that. Overall, there is a high demand for housing in New Jersey. Right now, buyers are holding out and stubborn sellers are holding fast. Should be interesting to see how it plays out......

Thursday, November 16, 2006 9:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bioll - I'm not about to drop 7 figures to get a shore house yet. I don't think many others feel like buying either.

Thursday, November 16, 2006 10:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A piece of anecdotal evidence to support this. Three of the five homes I have been watching were pulled off the market recently, No sales, just pulled off. Of the other two, one is a new construction but has been sitting almost completed for a while, the other has the dreaded "reduced" sign on display.

Thursday, November 16, 2006 11:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What will happen if the rumored Seastreak closure on January 1 becomes a fact? Looks like unless they sell that will happen.

Thursday, November 16, 2006 1:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I'm not about to drop 7 figures to get a shore house yet. I don't think many others feel like buying either"....well it looks like you'll have to settle for Camden or Newark to live

Thursday, November 16, 2006 5:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"well it looks like you'll have to settle for Camden or Newark to live"

yeaaaaaaaaaah, no. I don't think so. Plenty of nice housing in PA, for half the price.

Thursday, November 16, 2006 5:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

like My grandmother said if you can't afford diamonds ,you have to buy costume jewelry

Thursday, November 16, 2006 6:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It appears from all accounts {BARRONS "high end homes moving well"}....to Greenspan's remarks that the worst may be over ,to inventory shrinking on MLS..I would say we should be firming up from hers ...all agree ?

ALL accounts? Hardly. Something tells me you weren't on your HS debating team. Something also tells me you're a Realtor®*.

Barrons article: "high end homes" Even taking the article at face value (and Toll has stated otherwise), what % of the market does that segment represent? 3-5%?

Greenspan: would that be the same Greenspan who advocated ARMs at the precise low in mortgage rates?

MLS: wow! the inventory has been shrinking for at least a few weeks. I guess that's a long term trend, right?


* Realtor® is a registered trademark of the National Association of Realtors®,

Thursday, November 16, 2006 8:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing Construction Plunges in October



Friday November 17, 9:01 AM EST


WASHINGTON (AP) — Housing construction plunged to the lowest level in more than six years in October as the nation's once-booming housing market slowed further.


Yeah, looks like it's finally turned the corner, Mr/Ms Costume Jewelry!!!

Friday, November 17, 2006 9:18:00 AM  

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