Friday, May 12, 2006

Hitting Resistance at the Shore

Looking around for information about the Dwek case, I stumbled on this short report about the local real estate market.

Excerpt.

“To the concern of home owners, and the elation of prospective home buyers, Jersey Shore homes seem to finally be hitting some resistance in their decade long uninterrupted rise.

Individuals and brokers throughout the area, speaking on condition of anonymity, and advising SyMall.com of serious decreases in asking prices of homes for sale, as well as a substantial increase in the amount of homes for sale, and the amount of time some of these homes are remaining on the market as unsold.”


More…


32 Comments:

Blogger njcoast said...

Ah, Little Silvered you perused the SYmall website too. I found it very informative about the Syrian community that I lived amongst since growing up in Deal the 1960's. I especially liked the writings under SY trivia, it followed the first Syrians that arrived in the US to the community they maintain today. A very interesting read about a fascinating culture.

Friday, May 12, 2006 8:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This blog seems very biased towards the existance of a bubble, and its impending burst... If you are residents of the area it would seem that you would encouage high real estate prices. This area, (Monmouth County) is very special.. I live in allenhurst, my parents bought our house for less than 200k in the late 70s...today it is worth millions. I hope the bubble never bursts, and if it does, I dont think it will be as catastrophic as you all are claiming it to be..

Friday, May 12, 2006 11:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well my friend, I won't buy your house in Allenhurst for millions and if it means that I rent it for 20K a year, so be it.

Saturday, May 13, 2006 12:27:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Your Allenhurst house is only worth what someone will pay for it today. In light of the Dwek debacle, along with the tightening of lending standards and rising interest rates, I don't think your house will fetch the millions it might have last year. Look at realtor.com and see how many homes are for sale in Allenhurst and that doesn't count the ones for sale by Sonya Grill and FSBO's. Many of these homes have been listed for over a year. Your parents still have plenty of equity in their home if they didn't use it as an ATM and take out more equity than the house is worth today.

Saturday, May 13, 2006 9:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Every place is "special." (in fact use of that obvious cliche makes the above post look like a troll)

Anyway, the shore got whooped in the last downturn. There's no reason it can't get whooped again.

Saturday, May 13, 2006 9:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It just seems to me that this entire blog has all the charm of a nascar racing event... spectators waiting to see a crash. I wonder how many of you have degrees in finance or any real estate experience. of course everyone is entitled to their opinions...there are as many experts who say there is a bubble as those who say there is not.
And, yes there are houses all over the country which are overpriced, and sit for a long time on the market, but I there are exceptions.
In allenhurst, where one of the commentors said he would rent my house for 20k a year. Just last week a neighbor was offered 4 million, the house was not even for sale. Furthermore, the house resold
for more a week later. I never said
my house was for sale, thanks anyway though

Saturday, May 13, 2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Last house sold in Allenhurst
Date- 5/5/06
Listed 5/08/05
MLS# 10066765m

Original ask price- $3,500,000.
Reduced- $2,990,000.
Sold- $2,500,000.

That's a ONE million dollar price reduction. I hardley think houses are flying off the shelf in Allenhurst.

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:09:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

I mean hardly

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No not flying off the shelf at all, but...There will always be properties which will retain their value. I dont doubt that you all make valid points, there are properties which are way overpriced in allenhurst, but there are some that are not..I think you will find that these properties rarely change hands. I do not mean to say that there is no price inefficiency in the area, but an imminent catastrophe?
Lets not forget that the people who are buying these houses as second homes, most likely are not too worried about interest rates. Either way, I think we can both hope that the Jersey Shore continues to be a great place to live for everyone...no matter what happens with real estate prices. And if you are like my family, which i surmise you are, we are here because we love it, not to make a quick buck!

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you basing your opinion of the market on one sale?

Even if we take your anecdote at face value, even if one house did sell quickly, there are plenty more that languish on the market.

There's this one empty waterfront house in rumson that has sat for over a year. Even with price reductions, it still sits.

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:21:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

So the people who buy in Allenhurst are not worried about interest rates? I suggest you go to the Asbury Park Press online site and read all the articles pertaining to the unraveling of a whole lot of people's finances due to the Ponzi scheme of Soloman Dwek. Not only he but the much of the Syrian community is into debt up to their eyeballs because of "investing" money to him. Sellers was sure they had so much money because they were buying in cash, what you didn't know is that they mortgaged the property AFTER it was purchased. This Dwek debacle is going to have a serious reprecussions throughout Monmouth County as his properties are dumped on the market to satisfy creditors. If you think Allenhurst will be immune, I feel sorry for you. Thankfully your parents bought long ago and even if prices were to drop 50% they would still be ahead of the game- so you don't have to worry- just enjoy the beach!

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have read, and I personally know
many of his investors. I know the Syrian Community quite well, and for every syrian investor involved with Dwek there are 100 who have absolutely nothing to do with his business. My comment before was directed to the gentleman or gentlewoman who commented on renting my house for 20,000 dollars. I guess we will have to see what happens, the truth is noone can predict the market. Anyway, I enjoyed our debate, and hope to talk to you when the next scandal comes out..hahaha. Enjoy this beautiful weekend. And in fact I think I will go to the beach right now!!!

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:41:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Yes a great idea!

Saturday, May 13, 2006 11:47:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

"Anonymous said...
It just seems to me that this entire blog has all the charm of a nascar racing event... spectators waiting to see a crash. I wonder how many of you have degrees in finance or any real estate experience."

I have an MBA in finance and accounting from the University of Chicago.

Saturday, May 13, 2006 12:08:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Hey Allenhurst- I don't think anybody on this blog is wishing for a housing collapse- it would have detrimental economic effects far beyond the housing market. You seem like you might be a newbie to this site. If your parents bought in the '70's it is quite likely that you are in your middle to late twenties and are contemplating purchasing your own home in the near future. It would behoove you to keep reading this site and also Ben's "Housing Bubble Blog 2" so you can see the reasons why the housing market is in the precarious position it is today. Recent first time homebuyers who purchased their home with interest only and adjustable loans are the most vulnerable in a downturn. Hopefully by reading these blogs you can make an informative decision when it comes time to purchase your first home and you won't over pay or be saddled in debt like many young people are today. Good luck to you!Now I am off to the beach!

Saturday, May 13, 2006 12:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks for the advice njcoast...I have a few years before i am at that stage ...but i will definetly keep reading....!!!!!

Saturday, May 13, 2006 1:17:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Currently working on my second Masters degree. MBA with a double concentration, Economics and Finance. Next step will likely be a Doctorate in Economics..

grim
Northern NJ Real Estate Bubble
http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com

Saturday, May 13, 2006 8:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

why do many of us want the real estate bubble at the shore to crash? because like me, some of us missed the boat and didn't buy way back when so, we are a bit bitter. but, most importantly, because we love the life style of the jersey shore and we want to preserve that. we love the honky tonk and rock 'n' roll grungy shore. that part of it is somewhat disapearing. community and fun. that is what the jersey shore is all about. if you tear down an arcade or a club and replace them with mcmansions and "luxury condos" it just isolates people and takes away from the fun and the community. yes, i hope that the real estate market at the shore does crash. i can't stand the mcmansions and condos. they turn fun places into boring ghost towns!

Sunday, May 14, 2006 9:26:00 AM  
Anonymous rbyzell said...

rbyzell said the above and i'm proud of it!

Sunday, May 14, 2006 9:27:00 AM  
Blogger Gorobei said...

It just seems to me that this entire blog has all the charm of a nascar racing event... spectators waiting to see a crash. I wonder how many of you have degrees in finance or any real estate experience.

Well, 15 years experience working on Wall Street. Only 1 year or so RE experience (built the infrastructure for a major investment bank's mortgage conduit business, and that's why I read this blog.)

Monday, May 15, 2006 12:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Monday, May 15, 2006 8:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, I do have a masters degree in finance and my husband is a MBA, CPA and a CFP...gee feeling like I have to qualify to comment...and yes I would like to see a drop because we have been waiting to buy in for a few years now...OK now that you all know where I stand...

1% Fed Rate has never been seen before this recent past...now that the rate is back to 5% you would be INSANE not to believe the housing pricing will decrease. Shore real estate will always be worth a lot of money and will always be sought after - but 2 br cottages for $900,000 - those days are gone for now.

Monday, May 15, 2006 8:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Monday, May 15, 2006 2:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If I spent as much time working on my own real estate sites as I do slogging thru blogging, I'd probably make more money. But I enjoy a good read. Thanks for the break. Stop by my site if you can.

Monday, May 15, 2006 4:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can tell you for a fact that many of the sale prices that are printed in the newspapers are often way below actual transaction prices. An Deal-Allenhurst area homeowener got $4,000,000 for their house last year. But, the newpaper and the tax board recorded a transaction somewhere around $2,500,000.

In other words, about $1,500,000 essentially went from one pocket to the next, and nobody was taxed. This is just something to keep in mind, as things recorded by the tax board do not tell the full story about the real estate market, especially when high transaction prices are involved.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006 1:17:00 AM  
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Thursday, May 18, 2006 4:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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Thursday, May 18, 2006 4:39:00 AM  
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