Monday, August 21, 2006

Toll Brothers Reports Tomorrow

It's always interesting to get Bob Toll's outlook on the real estate market. The BOA analyst quoted below thinks Toll is going to miss earnings and guide lower.

Toll has a few projects in progress in New Jersey. I like following his the company's Hoboken projects because he has said that demand there remains healthy. Given all of the inventory coming on line in Hoboken, Jerset City, Weehawken and Edgewater, I think that it is going to take a long time before all of the inventory up there is aborbed.

Snip...

[Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim in a research note said he expects Toll to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of 96 cents a share, or 8 cents below the consensus estimate, due to expected land write-downs that could exceed $20 million.

Oppenheim is also looking for Toll to release its profit forecast for 2007. The analyst predicted Toll "will offer a wide range for 2007 guidance given the weak orders in fiscal 2006 countered by hope for improvement in orders in 2007" and said he wouldn't be surprised if the estimate calls for a 20% to 50% drop from the year earlier.

He expects Toll to lower its 2006 outlook from $4.69 to $5.16 a share and closer to his $4.20 estimate, which is 5% below Wall Street estimates.]

Full article...

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Toll Brothers Profit Slumps as U.S. Housing Boom Ends (Update2)

By Kathleen M. Howley

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, said fiscal third-quarter profit fell 19 percent as higher mortgage rates ended the five-year U.S. housing boom.

Net income for the three months ended July 31 declined to $174.6 million, or $1.07 a share, from $215.5 million, or $1.27, a year earlier, the Horsham, Pennsylvania-based company said today in a statement. Revenue fell to $1.53 billion from $1.55 billion.

Toll Brothers also cut its forecast for fourth-quarter profit as rising interest rates reduced demand for its homes, which sell for an average $690,000, and pushed unsold new single-family homes to an all-time high. The ``cooling'' of the U.S. real estate market is weakening the economy, the Federal Reserve said on Aug. 8 when it ended a series of 17 consecutive increases in the overnight lending rate.

``No one wants to be the guy who bought at the peak,'' said Alex Barron, a homebuilding analyst with JMP Securities LLC in San Francisco. ``There's a lot of fear in the market right now, and that's translating into an oversupply of homes.''

Mr. Rant

Tuesday, August 22, 2006 10:08:00 AM  
Blogger njcoast said...

This is the same Bob Toll who last summer predicted no end to the housing boom while at the same time sold hundreds of millions of his own stock. I remember the story in the NY Times that had Bob Toll saying that in ten or so years median home prices would be in the $3 million range. Last fall at an open house the realtor trotted out the article, to anyone who came, as proof positive that the time to was was now!!!

Tuesday, August 22, 2006 4:20:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Hundred million of dollars worth of stock not shares.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006 4:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Like everyone else in his profession, Bob Toll is a big fat liar and anything he says publicly should be dismissed as a total fabrication.

Like everyone else in his profession, Bob Toll would advertise a burning house as being an energy-efficient unit with the potential to save its owner thousands in winter heating bills. Then he'd tack another fifty grand on his asking price.

Like everyone else in his profession, Bob Toll is trying to be cool and downplays the current situation in his business as a minor abberation, a pesky "phase" to simply ride out. But like everyone else in his profession, Bob Toll is privately crapping himself and preparing to cut & run with as much capital as he personally can before the entire business collapses on itself.

Sunday, August 27, 2006 1:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can you blatantly call Bob Toll a liar? That guy built a business, what have you done recently besides ogle little boys at the local 7/11?

Why don't you post one shred of evidence that;

a) He is a liar

b) That Toll brothers is in imminent danger of failing

You can't because you are a sensationalist loser. What’s the matter your last welfare check got spent on malt liquor and all you can do is post drivel now that you are collecting cans for the nickel rebate?

Read Barron’s this weekend moron or don't you have the 4 bucks?

You disgust me and it is this type of post that ruins it for people who actually have a brain.

Mr. Rant

Sunday, August 27, 2006 7:27:00 PM  

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