Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Homes on MLS = 4378

Last week 4444.

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm in the market to buy, and agree that there is a deflating bubble in general, but I have seen a lot of homes I am looking at sell (not just get delisted) in the last month or so in Monmouth County.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 1:46:00 PM  
Anonymous sally said...

I agree we are going to the upside of the vally...prices will start moving up when homeowners see the number of people looking and homes start to move quickly,this trend is just starting but it could move really fast in the spring of 2007

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I dunno, Sally-o-realtor. I have a few contacts in the banking industry that are a little more in tune with whats going on.

While the NAR spouts such drivel as "it's a good time to buy or sell..", bank people look at real numbers, stats, etc. Their profitability or even survival depends on it.

A lot, I mean A LOT, of people bought property with no money down, glorified, home equity loans. There are a lot of people desperately trying to refinance. THe problem is that they have no or negative equity, or they can't afford the payment at a fixed interest rate above something like 4%.

You may see the world as rainbows, sunshine smiles, and unicorns but the people who need to make real descisions see things a bit differently.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 5:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If unicorn-Sally wants to buy, let her buy. If anyone listens to her, they'll get what they paid for her free advice.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 10:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sally-in-Wonderland, are you a 1st or 2nd grade teacher? Those are very nice fairy tales, but adults looking to establish their livelihood would prefer not to live in a fantasy world such as yours.

Friday, November 24, 2006 8:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear friends,
How did NJ housing become so ridiculously expensive?

One word: Credit.

The housing bubble has been fueled by Credit. Without easy credit, and lots of it, NJ real estate could never have achieved its epic valuations. Credit not only enabled first-time buyers to "stretch" a bit, it also enabled and emboldened speculative buyers, speculative builders, second-home buyers, second-home builders and every other variant of housing market participant / speculator.

But because financing became so exotic, and speculative participation in the market became so great, the simultaneous unwinding of both will be as pleasant as hanging out with your in-laws during a root canal.

The unwinding is already beginning. The NAR's Lereah offers a succinct explanation and post-mortem:

"Mortgage rates rose almost one point. Affordability conditions deteriorated. Speculative investors pulled out. Homebuyer confidence plunged. Resort buyers went to sidelines. Trade-up buyers to sidelines. First-time buyers priced out of the market."

As a result, Lereah explains:
"Sellers' market transitioning to buyers' market. Home sales plummet, prices lag, inventories rise/ Cooling markets left with high percentage of exotic loans.
Builders offering non-price incentives. Days-on-market lengthening. Residential construction activity slows. Home prices beginning to soften. We all know what happens NEXT. But we just don't know how bad it will be."

Please allow me to offer a prediction:

Home sales continue plummeting.
Prices begin to plummet.
Exotic loans begin to squeeze over-leveraged homeowners.
Prices plummet some more.
A bull market in housing begins in 2020...or maybe a little sooner.

The California real estate market provides some helpful clues about the likely depth and duration of the bust now underway. Since the California boom relied heavily upon exotic financing to plug the gap between affordability and purchase prices, the gap between affordability and purchase prices widened to extreme proportions.

Every valuation gap that relies on credit, rather than cash and income, is likely to narrow eventually...especially when the burden of existing credit is on the rise. And that's exactly what's happening in California.

Almost 40% of the state's homeowners — compared to 29% nationally — pay at least one third of their income for housing, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. Even worse, one fifth of all recent home-buyers pay more than HALF of their income for housing. Furthermore, California home-buyers have increasingly financed their purchases with unconventional loans, such as adjustable rate, negative amortization and interest-only mortgages, rather than traditional fixed mortgages. Just under a third of mortgages initiated or refinanced in California this year have interest-only components, compared with 1.4 percent in 2000, according to LoanPerformance. This tactic may have seemed quite savvy when rates were low, but it seems much less savvy now.

Friday, November 24, 2006 10:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any news on the Dwek property website?

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is some news on the Dwek property web site.

There was an August auction of commercial property. So far, the buyer of an Ocean County marina property backed out of a $4.8 Million deal. Also a group of investors backed out of a $22 Million purchase of 7 commercial properties.

All told, 80 banks, investors and creditors are owed $340 Million.

Sunday, November 26, 2006 8:34:00 AM  

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