Year-Over-Year Price Declines on the Way
The number of house sales in the Jersey Shore area and other parts of the country is clearly down, and have been, in various areas, for at least six months. That has not stopped the many of the housing bulls from trumpeting the fact that sale prices have continued to rise. The bulls most consistently cite the fact that prices, on a year-over-year basis, are still higher for the month being compared. The quote from bulls that you usually see is something like “…although the number of houses that sold last month were down xx% compared to last year, selling prices are up xx% from the same period last year.”
In a few more months though, positive year-over-year comparisons are going to end. This is only evident in a few markets, like in Massachusetts, so far, but it is spreading. According to the bubblemeter blog, the market in Washington DC is starting to see year-over-year price declines, although they are small so far.
I doubt that Realtors will be as motivated to point out price declines as much as they have been to point out price increases, however, I think that the public will eventually notice and that those who are selling houses will lower their asking prices more than they already have.
In a few more months though, positive year-over-year comparisons are going to end. This is only evident in a few markets, like in Massachusetts, so far, but it is spreading. According to the bubblemeter blog, the market in Washington DC is starting to see year-over-year price declines, although they are small so far.
I doubt that Realtors will be as motivated to point out price declines as much as they have been to point out price increases, however, I think that the public will eventually notice and that those who are selling houses will lower their asking prices more than they already have.
posted by Little_Silvered at 6:09 PM
6 Comments:
I called on a few homes "sale by owner" at the Jersey Shore this weekend. I listened to the owner’s sales pitch on their homes, and finally getting to hear their ridiculous asking prices. I told them they were way over priced and declined to make an appointment to see their homes. I think a few more people should spread the message by telling sellers they have out priced themselves.
bh
I went to an open house hosted by the owner last week. It is just not as fun or informative as a broker hosted open house, since the owners gnerally don't have a broad enough grasp of the entire local market. In addition, some of the brokers I have met have been quite frank regarding what they think the real price of the house is, which is sometimes well below the asking price.
Do you know where to get info on year price changes at the Carolina Coast areas? Especially NC Coastal areas.
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There's an online poll on the future of home prices on the Jersey shore at http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=BUSINESS
This week I am seeing more and more houses for sale, and only a few "under contract" that have been "under contract" for over 4 months. I did tell a few RE agents that the houses I saw were over-priced. They agreed with me, but said the sellers still think they can get 100-200k more than the house is worth. They agreed some sellers are pricing themselves out of the market. Then I'll hear a story about one house people are "bidding" over. I don't know if it is just a story, wishful thinking, or some morons are still out there over paying for a house!
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