Monday, June 12, 2006

Open House Experience

I went to one open house on Sunday. The house that I saw was in one of the nicer sections of Long Branch and has been on the market for about a year. The Realtor that was showing the house commented that it was originally listed too high and that owner had been chasing the market down since last summer. Since last summer, the home’s asking price has fallen a little more than 20%. As I have been finding with Realtors over the past few months, compared to last fall, there is some resignation that the market is not going to recover anytime soon. I have been waiting for a Shore Realtor to tell me this spring that “real estate never goes down”, but I have yet to encounter a legitimate gung-ho bull. I think many Realtors are realizing that there time and energies are better spent trying to get sellers to come down on price rather than trying to persuade buyers to pay up.

49 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Realtors and brokers need to work a little harder to inform sellers that the market has changed. Until then, it is only a waste of their own time and money to advertise over priced homes that just sit and get stale.

Monday, June 12, 2006 7:15:00 PM  
Anonymous sally o said...

any bubbleheads on here tonight ....you know all the people who wish they BOT 4 years but just couldn't pull the trigger.Now they just want the market to die....so they just pull the covers over there heads and keep writing the rent checks

Monday, June 12, 2006 7:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sally o ... not true... keep wishing. My cash will still buy a house, but not with you or any realtor in tow. I'll buy when I am good and ready on my own terms. You really need to get out of the denial phase :)

Monday, June 12, 2006 8:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sally-OH! Any more outlandish tales of quick selling houses or NY Times articles which don't exist?

BTW, what's a "BOT"? Is that like a SPAMBOT?

You can believe in a HOT MARKET if you'd like. You can believe in unicorns too for all the good it will do.

Monday, June 12, 2006 9:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about the bubbleheads who bought over the past four years and over extended themselves with creative financing and will be faced with rising monthly payments and/or foreclosure over the next few years. Sound familiar sally o?

Monday, June 12, 2006 10:06:00 PM  
Blogger njcoast said...

Hey Sally O could you please state on this blog how many houses in Rumson have gone under contract in June according to the Monmouth County MLS.
(In case Sally is chicken- the number for this month so far is a big fat 0!!!)

Sally says, " Buy, buy, buy before the prices go down!"

Monday, June 12, 2006 11:06:00 PM  
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 12:13:00 AM  
Anonymous Sally O said...

You poor people here really think thers is a housing crash in the making !...I see 8 homes on the former Hymer property on Sycamore Avenue in Shrewsbury are all SOLD prices ranging from 1.5 mil to 2.7...I guess the buyers haven't heard of the Bubble yet,you bubble heads better run out and tell them before it's to late ....LOL

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love it - Sally o is chiding us!!! LOL LOL LOL LOL

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Sally o said...

to ya' all BUBBLEHEADS.(those who missed the boat and have been hoping for a crash)
The "overvaluation" looks pretty well balanced by longer term supports for house prices, so we may just see a few years with little price increases (2-6%)so there is hope for you all to buy your own home .

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

an Ad ARTICLE AT
Asbury Park Press
Sunday May 28, 2006
p.G3 !!!

"Kara Homes advises active adults to purchase homes now" !!!

Why buy homes when you knew that New Jersey home prices is way overpriced according to the latest report and Housing prices is now cooling if not CRASHING !!!!

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sally-o -
You've been asked but never confess. You must be a realtor, meaning you are a fool and a liar.
You won't give us your listings - but you are scared shitless because you continue to come visit this site and try to convince us we are missing out - Bull crap!

How bout you go spew your lies to those uninformed that don't already know the market has already begun sinking.
We here all do and you are wasting your time. You aren't going to sell anything (houses or your lies) here Bye-bye :)

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Sally O said...

I am just a informed Investor ,you bubbleheads have been doing a injustice to home buyers for the last 3 years,claiming a housing bubble...all thoes people who have followed your advice are left out,I see a lot of homes moving ,just today I've learned of a house selling in Little Silver in 10 days 1.3 mill.Homes are selling this bubble has been meida driven for to long now . as faras being on this board I just got back from a 10 day vacation on fri.You say the market is sinking (You must mean the stock mkt)....well I don't see it and neither do you.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 12:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That $1.3 million baby in Little Silver sold in less than 10 days, and had 4 other offers.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 4:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sally-o - go visit Housing Panic and Northern Jersey blog spots. Maybe you'll learn something. My guess is, you have very little education and a big mouth :0

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 5:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WOW! Did you hear that everyone? A house sold in 10 days! Wow. That changes EVERYTHING.

Forget about all that inventory. Ignore all those houses that have been on the market for MONTHS.

A house sold in 10 days. That can only mean the market is ROARING.

Of course, if sally sez it, we don't need proof, right kids?

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 5:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sally o said... "I am not a troll, I am not a troll!"

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 5:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sure houses are still selling, but for every house that sells, there seems to be 5-10 that are not. This is what I have been observing in my area. Those that believe the market is still HOT are in serious denial.What will happen to all those overpriced listings that are pouring into the market?There doesn't seem to be many serious buyers out there anymore. I guess only time will tell.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 5:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I take it that people who read this blog are essentially priced out of the housing market and are hoping for a crash that makes housing more affordable. One problem with that plan is that while prices have stopped rising and have come down somewhat in the last year, that's been a result of the same phenomena that drove them up in the first place -- interest rates. For a BUYER, the drop in price hasn't changed the amount of money you're going to have to fork over to own a house because interest rates are 1.5% higher. So wait to buy that house -- the fed has made it clear that rates will rise steadily over the next year. Your monthly mortgage payment is not likely to go down if you wait.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 6:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

6:04 - it's the payment that needs to be affordable. If interest rates increase, prices will need to drop to maintain the same level of affordabilty (which itself is currently stretched to the limit).

Lower price => smaller downpayment everything else being equal.

And that kind of price movement is fundamental-based. What about the market psychology component?

Not all of the price increases of the past few years can be attributed to interest rates. Buyers were panicking and investors went from bullish to hoggish.

But the buyer panic has stopped and investors have turned from being net buyers to net sellers.

Not sure how that benefits sellers but you are free to believe anything you want.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 6:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Sally O said...

I see the true BUBBLEHEADS are out in force tonight,my guess is they get upset when I push their buttons ,a little anger control is in order here....as I said before homes are selling and a FULL prices ....If a seller prices right ,like the 8 homes in Shrewsbury and LS they will sell !If you need a list just look up public records,...facts are facts .I suspect the glut of listings are owners seeking to cash in on the High prices,that's it nothing more nothing less.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 6:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're wrong to assume that everyone posting here is a buyer who has been priced out of the market. We are realistic and not controlled by greed and would like to see the younger people who are just starting out buy a home without being taken to the cleaners. I'm not hoping for a crash, just a return to normalcy.Over the last few years investors have taken the place of first timers, who have been priced out. There are now few investors and even fewer first timers. Doesn't sound too healthy.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 6:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny - the only name caller in this comment thread is recommending (without any sense of irony no doubt) anger control.

I guess for some, name calling and ad hominem are effective substitutes for engaging in real debate.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 6:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sally does have a lot of chuzpah to be taking all this heat. I did in fact see that NY Times article everyone is speaking about.

I bought four years ago in Union City and I'm glad I did so. I read this blog and not because I was priced out of the market, but because my brother and many other people I know, especially with children, can't buy a decent home. If they did in the past few years they are struggling. It's a shame.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 7:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A little of topic, but I was using Realtor.com to look at houses in allenhurst. It listed about 30, but on further inspection i noticed that only abot 8-10 were actually in allenhurst. Do the realtors behind this website use false advertisment to lure buyers to locations which they would normally not consider?

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 7:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No one is really talking about the "NY Times article" because no one has seen it.

The few who do mention it never get around to actually posting a link - despite multiple reminders.

No link just invites suspicion. It's also bad form.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 7:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Realtors* never do anything unethical like false advertise. They follow a strict code of ethics. How do I know? Their radio ad SAYS SO!



* REALTOR is a registered trademark of the National Association of Realtors.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 7:23:00 PM  
Blogger Little Silvered said...

"Your monthly mortgage payment is not likely to go down if you wait."


Assuming I wanted to keep my mortgage payment at a certain specific level, I would rather pay a higher rate of interest than a higher price for the house.

Interest rates may eventually come down, and I can refinance, multiple times if I want. However, I only get one shot at over paying for a house.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 7:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Come on - interest rates are still at low levels ...@ 7% is not high! I am not priced out of the market. In fact I sold a year ago and have plenty of cash. I choose to wait to buy and am smart enough not to pay some crazy price.
I am not name calling or angry either, but I wouldn't trust sally-o as far as I could throw her and I ahve a feeling she's a heafty one.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with littlesivered, I would rather pay a lower price for a house at a higher interest rate. Refinancing is always an option if rates decline. I love these people that believe as interest rates rise so will home prices. Sounds like serious denial and desperation to me.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We're on Long Beach Island, and have been for many years. We all know the market has reached the ridiculous point. Little two bedroom houses in bad locations for $700,000? Come on, reality is happening. We're here because we love the place, not because we thought we'd make a killing.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have lived in Bay Head, NJ for years. My parents purchased their home over 30 years ago. They have not done anything to it - maybe new carpet and replaced some broken appliances.
If I had to buy it today - there is no way I'd pay the so called market value.
The whole house needs to be demolished. Buyers beware. A 50x 170' lot with a junky house is not a great buy at $750k.
This is my inheritence on the line, so I am definitely not helping my own cause. I am just telling it as it is. Someone needs to stop and admit to the madness.
Please don't bid on these over-priced houses - lowball or wait. You will be greatful you did.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sally, Sally, Sally ... you are so utterly CLUELESS about what is happening. All that real estate you're holding -- better dump it soon, girl, before you've lost you're arse! Inventory going up because of folks testing the waters??? LMAO! At least 28% of all U.S. homes bought in 2005 were purchased by speculators! (Now THERE'S a sustainable business model, huh?) And they are only BEGINNING to dump their wasting assets on the market now! What's the matter, Sally? Not around in the early 90's to remember what happened then? Oh, I know, this time is DIFFERENT!! NOT!!! Take it from somebody at ground zero in Naples. And the great thing about wanting the market to die -- OUR WISHES WILL COME TRUE! LMFAO!!!!

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obviously there is slow down, and prices will fall, about 20% is the average I have seen in researching this subject, but I think everyone should remember this is all cyclical, after the bubble bursts everyone should go buy there dream house quickly, because if the last few decades, booms and busts, have taught us anything is that in a few years prices will begin to rise all over again!!!!

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 1:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060612/bs_ft/fto061220061742022646.......any comments ?

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 8:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

does anyone know about the Ryan homes (new) in Toms RIver (off of Clifton Ave.)?

apparently have many incentives if you go with their mortgage company, NVR.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 11:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

watch "absorption rates" closely. It's a time-tested yardstick for home sales. Does it prove that the Housing Bubble has already popped? You bet it has. Read more ....

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On a recent conference call, Ara K. Hovnanian, the president and chief executive officer of homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. said that real estate investors "have largely pulled out."

"Investors were a bigger part of the market than many thought, including ourselves," said Hovnanian, whose company builds primarily in the Northeast. Would-be flippers are not only not buying new properties, they're selling what they already own, adding to the record number of homes already on the market.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Sally!

Funny thing is... I convinced my wife to sell our home at the peak of the market last year.

Took the money and took a position on Silver in the commodities market at $8/oz. and leveraged that position at 5 times the amount I put down $100,000 to be exact. Well, following Warren Buffet's lead, it paid off nicely, VERY nicely. I then took a short position in the same market and did doubly well.

And I thought I made a fortune on the one purchase of my home in 1999 and selling it last year?

Everyone said I was crazy to sell my home and to actually rent, as we owned a home since a month before we married, and now look at us.

We are in our early 30's, no debt whatsoever, I am self-employed with two business ventures that I was able to take advantage of the opportunity of and we have more than enough money now to purchase a $500k+ home, in cash now.

Want to know something funny? Had I had listened to everyone else and bought a home instead, I would have been stuck with a mortgage (read = debt, not an asset like people lie to others about when they say owning a home is an asset) and even with a sizeable amount down $150k and a 5.5%/30 year/0 point I acquired for a home last year, I STILL would have been paying over $2,000+/month and that's just for the mortgage, nothing else.

Renting? Heck, we've SAVED money and when something breaks, you know who pays for it? The landlord. Just bought a new washer and dryer last week actually and sitting back waiting to buy a HUGE home next year, either on foreclosure or simply a lower price.

And... the best part... if the market goes the way many analysts are predicting, the silver I have now... Well, that's just gravy. Looks like a boat, new cars and the likes are in order.

All this, not for making six figures a year... simply for making the RIGHT decision at the RIGHT time. Tried telling all of my friends, stay away from the ARM's and creative mortgages which make you house poor and worse. Looks like as Bernanke keeps raising the rates to fight deflation and those ARM's resetting... it's going to get VERY bad for many people.

Sally O, you are just a heartless shill...

Wednesday, June 21, 2006 10:08:00 PM  
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Anonymous Anonymous said...

In this "cooling off" real estate market, suggest that the average residence is shown about 4 times a week during the first 3 weeks of a real estate listing. After that, an unsold home goes "stale" ... it gets shown less .

Tuesday, July 04, 2006 8:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice blog you have. Been looking for a good real estate blog to help me struggle through this difficult market. We've developed a unique approach to tough housing markets. Might interest you and your readers. Thanks again for an interesting site.

Wednesday, July 05, 2006 12:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #8 for . Clean Your Closets: Neat, well ordered closets look bigger, suggesting that storage space is ample. One of any home's biggest deal-killers remains: "Not enough closet space."

Saturday, July 08, 2006 2:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the , you don't have strangers coming through your home, day after day, often week after week, at times which are not always convenient. Your home must look great ... truly great ... for one weekend only .

Sunday, July 09, 2006 10:16:00 AM  
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Anonymous Bill Kilbride said...

The market was dead Aug 05-Aug 06 and we have seen a very noticeable pick-up in our office since August. The overall market is still sluggish, inventory is higher but not by a huge amount. Asking prices are down (to a more realistic level), the rates are 5.75-6% recently and gas prices are down .75 cents per gallon. I think buyers were waiting to see if there would be significant drop in prices. I see 5-10% reduction in asking prices but alot of those were overpriced to begin with. Its a decent fall and I would guess a decent spring. Its never the perfect time to buy you just have to jump in at some point and enjoy your investment.

Bill Kilbride
Critelli & Kilbride Realtors

Friday, October 06, 2006 2:52:00 PM  

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