This was posted in the comment section. Someone suggested it deserves its own post and they are right.
Anonymous said...
Just got back from a week on LBI--my 30th or so in 35 years since I was in a stroller.
Weather was a mixed bag: mostly bad, some good, some strange--we left this morning in a sandstorm; the sand drifted up into the streets, totally obliterating the fences, and covering the bench that adorns the end of each street. Trudging to the water's edge, I could hear Maurice Jarrre's theme music from Lawrence of Arabia in my head: "I must get to Aqaba!"
What follows is a mixture of conjecture, rant, and bewilderment. (With maybe a soupcon of commonsense unintentionally thrown in the mix.)
Observations:
*Hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of houses with for sale signs--lots with "Reduced!" plackards affixed.
*Hundreds (or, again, thousands) more houses with For Rent signs--and rentals were slow this season, by at least one agent's reckoning. I was able to negotiate a significant reduction in rent for my second-from-beach Cape Cod in Brighton when I started looking in July.
*Retailers said that a crappy end to August and Labor Day weekend caps one of the worst seasons in memory. One guy at a long-standing business said that vacationers over the last few years have "short arms and deep pockets"; they are increasingly forced to choose between rents and "amenities."
*Stores were in weeks two and three of their end-of-season sales.
*Fantasy Island STILL doesn't get it: Open the damn rides at 2:pm, instead of 5. My kids were driving me nerts--but the pizza place at Bay Village is still top-drawer.
*The vibe down there has changed--simply the consequence of people paying more and expecting more. I don't claim to speak for the masses, and I still love the place, but if the wife or I want to buy Lilly Pulitzer togs or JP Tod loafers, we'll go to Southampton, Bayhead or brush up on my Thurston Howell, III lockjaw and go back to Chatam, MA. Three story McMar-a-Lagos festooned with vinyl Victoriana and built on the former sites of capes and two-bedroom bungaloes does not a Malibu make--LBI is, despite the massive influx of funny money, just not a fashionable summer resort, at least not south of the causeway. (And only in isolated sections north of it at that. Though I gotta say that Barnegat Light looks better now than it did ten years ago.)
*The former Brighton Manor motel, a cheesy little dump where I used to rent a Sat. night to extend my vacation another day, is now efficency condos, priced at $199k/unit (down from $240k at initial offering). The barely renovated rooms are maybe 180-200 sf, with teeny kitchenettes (microwave, sink, fridgelet, but no stove). If the owners cut the number of units in half, made each a two story floor-thru, and charged $219k, maybe it'd be worth a look. But for now, the bubble has a name, and it's Brighton Manor Condos on LB Blvd (Near the ACME!). In fact, if I had to create a picture of the bubble, it'd be the lovely sea-foam green accented former motor lodge perched behind signs in the parking lot screaming, "OPEN HOUSE! REDUCED!! LIMITED TIME OFFER!!!" signs in the parking lot. My guess is, the last unit will be sold for under 100k--maybe $79k. It'll be a date that will live in infamy...
*Mustache Bill's diner in Barenegat Light has incredible fries and really good white chowder.
* Surf was crappy. Glad I didn't finally break down and buy a board.
*It's still a swell place. I admire/envy the folks who bought before the Bubble. And I'll show no Schadenfreude for those who end up losing their shirts. LBI is a place that can make Mr Spock irrational. It's a shame prices got so out of wack, and that a lot of people are gonna get hurt when they return to Earth.
By way of digression: The tatty cape I rented for $2500/week was listed for $1.2 mil. It was nicely redecorated with Ikea/Target stuff, but the systems were a disaster--e.g., 15 amp fuse box. The realtor calls it a tear-down--I'd rather buy a lot and not have to deal with demolition. I took one look at the place and decided that it was a "flipper." A quick check with the neighbor confirmed my suspicion: A couple once owned the place for a long time as a summer cottage; they put little work into it. The present owner bought in early '05; he paid in "the high eights."
The new owners prolly decided to rent it while it's on the market. Big mistake. The remnants of T.S. Ernesto exposed the place's weaknesses: The owners put in cheap-o window a/c units, but didn't caulk--result: horizontal rains caused extensive water damage to floors and newly-painted/restored sheetrock ceilings. The winds blew roof shingles off. Inside, the furniture was in unsafe/shabby condition, etc. Owners probably don't know sweet f-a about renting--there was no cleaning equipment, just an electric broom, and no mop--which meant that wife and I were using bedspreads to stanch the bleeding.
(Yeah, I should have checked it out in person, but I didn't think it was necessary--I mean, screw me for taking the word of the agency from which I had rented for the past ten years [the rental agent whom I worked with this summer is a middle-aged "sales associate" who in a year's time likely will be back to doing whatever it was he did before he put on his realtor's jacket]. Before this year, I used to deal with the broker, an upstanding [for real estate] woman named Sharon, who now owns the place.)
Other tid-bits: This place (our rental) had a spotty rental history this summer--there were lots of open weeks as late as mid-July. Now the owner has to either do repairs from T.S. Ernesto and hope the place lasts out the fall (rainy) season and winter. To pay for it, he can put in an insurance claim and hope to sell before he has to renew his policy, which will, naturally skyrocket in price.
Either way, this guy probably sank $25 grand into "renovating" the house, and might be carrying a big mortgage, or at least losing principle on a cash purchase when he could be getting a minimum of 5% gain elsewhere. He may have gotten $20-24k in rental income this summer, less the agent's 10%--and, with the peeling paint and stained, possibly water damaged sheetrock, there is NO way people can inhabit the place this week. Great investment--what he loses per unit, he'll make up in volume...
There must be dozens or even hundreds more like this owner on LBI. My gut says that after all is said and done, he'll be lucky to get in the high sixes, low sevens. And the neighbor who filled me in on the owner's story was a discernably, yet discretely, amused by this owner's folly--it's gotten to the point where even long-timers (ESPECIALLY long-timers) want the madness to end. Greed is so unsexy.
So, how was your summer?
-Jamey
5:08 PM